[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N8W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W...GOING TO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR AT 50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N27W 3N30W
3N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W
AND 23W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
GRADUAL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 22N EAST OF 87W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 30N80W 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO 27N85W AND 25N91W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
25N91W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 26N97W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. THE 24 HR TO
48 HR FORECAST IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA...AND TO HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY IS IN PLACE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N60W TO 20N62W THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W.
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
44W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N50W TO 20N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 20N60W TO 20N62W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W. BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N60W 24N50W 27N45W 31N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW GOES
FROM 26N37W BEYOND 32N36W TO 36N37W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS REACHING THE CANARY
ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
10W AND 20W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL JET
STREAM. BROAD WESTERLY FLOW FROM VENEZUELA AND
GUYANA/SURINAME/AND FRENCH GUIANA TO 3N37W 23N26W BEYOND 25N18W
ACROSS MOROCCO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
WITHIN 100 NM TO 300 NM TO 500 NM WEST OF THE JET STREAM FROM
23N TO 3N.

$$
MT


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