[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W...TO 3S46W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 6W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND SOUTH
OF 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W 5N50W 7N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF
80W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
THE CURRENT U.S.A. EAST COAST STORM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT STILL IS PASSING OVER FLORIDA AT THIS MOMENT.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N81W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EVERYWHERE WEST AND NORTH OF 32N69W
27N72W 23N80W 23N90W 27N94W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE AREA...WEST OF 22N96W 25N93W
30N95W...AND ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W...
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N82W...REACHING THE HONDURAS
COAST ALONG 86W...INTO CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 16N91W. COLD AIR
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 29N. GALE
WIND CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND NORTH OF 28N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 79W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN AMOUNT AND COVERAGE AND NOW ONLY GO FROM LAND TO
17N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...AND WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 21N80W 19N85W. PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N
TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 29N74W 27N76W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS IS WEST OF 78W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 52W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SECOND DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURES IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PASSES THROUGH 35N40W TO 31N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM 30N38W TO 28N40W
TO 22N50W TO 19N57W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N31W
IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...AND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 25N58W IS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DENSE OVERCAST
CLOUDS ARE RACING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...NOW
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 52W. A THIRD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
RELATED TO A WATER VAPOR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N16W
NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 25N14W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
MT


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