[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 6N14W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W...TO 3S45W
IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...SOUTH OF
2N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF
80W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
THE CURRENT U.S.A. EAST COAST STORM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT STILL IS PASSING OVER FLORIDA AT THIS MOMENT.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
TO NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EVERYWHERE WEST AND NORTH OF 32N73W
26N80W 23N90W 27N96W. A TINY BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND
A BIT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO 25N80W OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W...
ENDING IN BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. GALE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND NORTH OF 27N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HONDURAS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 87W
AND 88W...FROM 20N TO THE CUBA COAST BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND
80W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 29N74W 27N76W

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 19N77W...JUST OFF THE NORTHERN JAMAICA COAST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS IS WEST OF 11N75W
15N78W 20N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N84W TO 17N83W TO 19N81W NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND.ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 54W AND
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SECOND DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ONE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
ARE NORTH OF 32N. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM 31N38W TO 28N40W
TO 24N46W TO 20N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N27W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 24N34W TO 16N42W TO 11N45W TO 6N46W. A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N61W IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
31N38W 20N54W TROUGH. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
THE LINE THROUGH 32N36W 28N39W 24N44W 22N50W 20N54W. DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE RACING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...NOW FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. A THIRD DEEP
LAYER TROUGH IS RELATED TO A WATER VAPOR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 34N18W NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 30N11W
AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO. A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH IS NORTH OF 31N.

$$
MT




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