[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 1N21W 2N35W 1N42W 2N52W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO JUST S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-9W AND FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-14W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF N
OF 25N W OF 82W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT 15/0900 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAY CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W
PRODUCING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. BAND OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO JUST W OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH A BROADER AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER SE
GEORGIA...E SOUTH CAROLINA AND FURTHER N. THIS FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF
DURING THE DAY EXITING THE GULF TONIGHT/MON MORNING. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 94W. DRY AIR IS
MOVING IN OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH IS CLEARING THE SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N80W EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN S TO SW
UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND INT HE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N W OF 85W. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC IS
BUILDING SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. DRY AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 83W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA GIVING CLEAR SKIES WITH NO
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 62W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING SW OVER W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
30N68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
N OF 23N FROM 38W-62W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W SW TO 22N51W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLC...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF 24N E OF 20W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N18W TO 26N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS CONTINUES TO
BRIDGE THE FRONT N OF 15N E OF 43W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
25N34W AND A STRONGER 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. BROAD UPPER E/W
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICS ALONG 7N/8N TO
50W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC GIVING THE
AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE



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