[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 1N33W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 40W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-7W AND FROM 6N
TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 22W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N FROM 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NW
GULF N OF 27N W OF 84W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT 15/0300
UTC ENTERING THE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER EXTENDING
INTO THE BAY CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS FRONT
AND ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF TODAY EXITING THE GULF SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. BAND OF
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 28N87W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US NEAR 30N85W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 23N FROM 87W-91W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. DRY AIR IS MOVING IN OVER
THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH AID IN
CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US ANCHORED BY
A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N81W EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN S TO SW
UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC IS
BUILDING SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. DRY AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 83W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA GIVING CLEAR SKIES WITH NO
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING SW OVER W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
32N71W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
N OF 23N FROM 40W-65W WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. NONE ARE PRODUCING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF 23N E
OF 22W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N20W TO 25N29W WHERE IT DISSIPATES NW
OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS BRIDGING
THE FRONT N OF 15N E OF 43W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N33W AND
A STRONGER 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICS ALONG 7N/8N TO 50W.
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE




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