[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N19W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 5N10W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 5W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ENHANCING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER
THE NW GULF COAST. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE W GULF ALONG 23N97W TO 28N95W BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE GULF WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON MON. MODERATE/STRONG
MOSTLY NE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH UNSEASONABLE
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE N GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N64W GIVING THE AREA SW TO W UPPER FLOW. THIS FLOW
IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N W OF 70W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N53W ALONG 25N63W TO THE COAST OF HAITI. A
SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN THE LEADING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT S OF
27N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N64W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 20N55W INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N41W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 12N E OF 40W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
1010 MB LOW OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 24N22W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK
OF THE ATLC...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

$$
WALLACE





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