[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FRONT HE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER AFRICA E OF 9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MEXICO ENHANCING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE W GULF ALONG 96W FROM 22N-29N. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE GULF AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MON. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF WHILE
MODERATE/STRONG E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF...HOWEVER CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
OVER FLORIDA AND THE S GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N64W GIVING THE AREA SW TO W UPPER FLOW. THIS FLOW
IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO
COSTA RICA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG OF THE
COASTLINE. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 25N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
A SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W TO THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT S OF 27N.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N64W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 20N56W INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N42W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 12N E OF 40W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
1012 MB LOW OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 25N23W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK
OF THE ATLC...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

$$
WALLACE




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