[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR EQ50W.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 24W-26W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO W CUBA ALONG 24N80W 22N82W.  COMPOSITE NEXRAD RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED MODERATE RAIN AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 78W-81W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE
FRONT HAS 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 95W WHILE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MEXICO AND
THE W GULF W OF 95W.  EXPECT UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GULF AT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER N
MEXICO WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE
RIDGING AT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS
ALONG 22N82W 16N86W MOVING E.  15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN W OF FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CUBA N OF
21N.  10-15 KT TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 60W.  THIN BANDS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE SEA E OF 80W.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FLATTEN
OUT AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS.  TRADEWINDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA E OF
FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1008 MB LOW FORMED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N74W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA NEAR 22N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN
72W-78W.   A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N52W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N28W 24N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N23W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 25W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF
25W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BY 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net