[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N17W 2N37W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 2N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 12W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ AXIS
W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US WITH A BROADENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES CONSIST OF A 1010 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OVER THE
E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 15N91W ENTERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS ALSO ATTACHED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 88W WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
N AND W GULF WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND CLEARING SKIES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE SAME
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF BY SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH SW WIND TRANSPORTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM 80W-83W. THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH ONLY HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
THE NW ATLC DRAPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 73W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 73W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N59W. WEAK 1019
MB HIGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD NE OF THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 25N53W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
15N FROM 30W-53W WITH THE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS REMAINING N OF
THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N31W SW TO 26N40W THEN DISSIPATING TO 25N45W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE
ATLC E OF E OF 60W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 8N18W COVERING THE AREA E OF 30W AND CONTINUING TO
SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS CONVECTION. E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE SAME UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC
TO NEAR 38W.

$$
WALLACE





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