[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W EQ37W AND INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
2W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 6S-EQ BETWEEN
30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 05/2100 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N92W.
THE LOW HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE WRN
YUCATAN...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW TO
SW FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE LOW TO 22N97W...WHICH
IS A NEW ADDITION TO THE MAP BASED ON THE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
SEEN JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO
THE SFC FEATURES...THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 23N E OF 92W. LIGHTNING
DATA ALSO SUPPORTS SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FOCUS OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SE...WITH HIGH PRES
N OF THE AREA TAKING CONTROL OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADES ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE NW PORTION...WITH A WEAKNESS
IN THE GRADIENT BEING FELT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE BEING FELT OVER
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB E OF 77W. A SMALL PATCH OF
MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE GULF FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE
CARIB WATERS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN...FROM 18N-20N W OF 85W.
BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALSO NOTED IN A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN NE HONDURAS AND ERN CUBA. THE
ONLY OTHER NOTABLE PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IS NOTED MIDWAY BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND HISPANIOLA.
ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS...WHICH IS ADVECTING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC ITCZ NE THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOK FOR THE FRONT IN THE
GULF TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIB DURING FRI BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 32N72W 27N81W. SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH TSTMS NOTED FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NW OF A LINE ALONG
24N77W 32N60W. STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW AROUND RIDGING IS SPREADING
SIGNIFICANT UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE WRN ATLC W OF 55W. A SECOND
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 24N48W AND
THEN CONTINUES WSW AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESTIMATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. A SFC
TROUGH IS ALSO FURTHER S IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N37W
14N50W...THAT HAS OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 30NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
UPPER TROUGHING ALSO EXTENDS S THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVEN
SUPPORT TO THE SFC FEATURES. VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGING
DOMINATES E ATLC...WITH A 1018 MB SFC HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS AT 28N23W.

$$
WILLIS




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