[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N30W EQ37W AND INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-19W...FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 26W-31W...
AND FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N91W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOW
CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W 27N85W 25N91W 18N94W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
25-30 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT ELY WINDS
ARE S OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORMING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE
CENTER WHILE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE E
OF THE CENTER.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF
88W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR BELIZE WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS WITHIN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E TO FLORIDA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.  CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 76W-85W.  10-15 KT TRADEWINDS
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
75W.  THIN BANDS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SEA
W OF 70W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE TO BE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS.  TRADEWINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA E OF FRONT.  ALSO EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE TO 60W WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
32N73W 28N80W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N67W.  A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N78W 25N45W
24N50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 34W-36W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N18W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
15N45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 35W.  EXPECT A 1006 MB LOW TO FORM OVER
THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE
CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND
PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA BY 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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