[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR 7N10W 4N19W 1N36W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 2N19W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 7N16W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER
THE SE US. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTLINE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF PRODUCING LIGHT S TO E WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
W/CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE SE GULF HAS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY SW TO W UPPER WINDS
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF
80W. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N-15N E OF 77W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTEND INTO THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N71W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 25W-60W WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N
OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N27W EXTENDING SSW TO 20N37W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 17N41W AND A
WEAKENING SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN THE NW ATLC NEAR
37N63W IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DROP SE INTO THE N PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO WELL
WITHIN THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
COVER THE AREA WITHIN 300/350 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N61.5W TO 21N41W THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN 200 NM
ALONG 23N34W TO AFRICA NEAR 26N14W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA ACROSS THE ATLC TO SOUTH
AMERICA WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 6N/7N THUS SUPPRESSING THE
ITCZ AXIS TO THE S.

$$
WADDINGTON/WALLACE





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