[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030508
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N18W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 2.5N16W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7.5N12.5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE US
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF
26N W OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE E
GULF WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W PRODUCING LIGHT S TO E WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A
WEAK SEA-BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE W GULF
WHILE THE E GULF HAS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY SW TO W UPPER WINDS
WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
FROM 74W-80W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER
THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC IS
BEGINNING TO RELAX. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
12N-16N E OF 77W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
EXTEND INTO THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 30N65W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 20N FROM 25W-60W WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W
EXTENDING SSW TO 17N42W AND A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT CLIPPING
THE AREA NEAR 31N37W. SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300/350 NM OF LINE FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO 23N40W THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN
200/250 NM ALONG 25N28W TO AFRICA NEAR 27N13W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AFRICA ACROSS THE ATLC TO SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 6N/7N THUS SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE
S. A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND DROP S INTO THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO WELL WITHIN THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE




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