[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N35W 2N51W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS S OF THE
AXIS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 34W-41W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
IS APPROACHING NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW GULF IN
ADVANCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA JUST W OF
FREEPORT TEXAS AND CONTINUES SSW TO JUST JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE
AND THEN INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
N OF 21N W OF 91W. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
TAMPICO TO NEW ORLEANS LINE WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT GRADUALLY
BECOMING DIFFUSE. REMAINDER OF GULF SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY WRN
PORTION OF AN ATLC 1025 MB HIGH 500 NM E OF THE GEORGIA COAST.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES AHEAD OF DEEP
LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALSO SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION IN THE NW GULF. WSW FLOW IS SPREADING CIRRUS OVER THE
CONVECTION E OVER MUCH OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRES HAS BUILT N OF THE AREA AND IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIB. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES W ALONG
17N62W 18N70W. ELONGATED BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL ZONE NOTED BETWEEN THE NE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND DOMINICA THAT LIKELY HAS EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 13N-17N. BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W. BRISK TRADE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 31N71W DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N40W AND CONTINUES S/SW
THROUGH 20N45W 14N57W. BROKEN COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT EXCEPT WITHIN 300
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN ATLC.  THE RECENT
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAVE SENT A STRONG
PULSE OF MEDIUM PERIOD (9-11S) NLY SWELL THROUGH THE AREA. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO SAN
JUAN FOR MORE INFO. REMAINDER OF E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS IS PRODUCING
ABUNDANT 10-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W.

HI PRES IN THE WRN ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S AND WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE E ATLC
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT WILL PUSH E TO
A POSITION ALONG 30N35W 15N47W BY MON MORNING.

$$
WILLIS






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