[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N35W 4N52W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W...AND BETWEEN 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW GULF IN
ADVANCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AS OF 01/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
AREA JUST W OF FREEPORT TEXAS AND CONTINUES SSW TO JUST JUST W
OF BROWNSVILLE AND THEN INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. SCATTERED TSTMS
HAVE ALSO PERSISTED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TAMPICO TO NEW
ORLEANS LINE WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE.
REMAINDER OF GULF SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY WRN PORTION OF AN
ATLC 1024 MB HIGH E OF THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PUSHING E IN ADVANCE OF DEEP LAYER TROUGHING
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. DIFFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALSO SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN
THE NW GULF. WSW FLOW IS SPREADING CIRRUS OVER THE CONVECTION E
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE VERY DRY
AIR EXISTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRES HAS BUILT N OF THE AREA AND IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIB. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES W ALONG
17N62W 18N70W. ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NOTED BETWEEN
THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND DOMINICA THAT LIKELY HAS EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS. BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W. BRISK TRADE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 32N71W DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N43W AND CONTINUES S/SW
THROUGH 23N45W 17N62W. BROKEN COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
EXIST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY N OF 21N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
33W-43W. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC SUPPORT FROM THE FRONT...THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING OVER
THE ERN ATLC.  THE RECENT STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM HAVE SENT A STRONG PULSE OF MEDIUM PERIOD (9-11S) NLY
SWELL THROUGH THE AREA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO
SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO. REMAINDER OF E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS IS PRODUCING
ABUNDANT 15-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W.

HI PRES IN THE WRN ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S AND WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE E ATLC
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT WILL PUSH TO A
POSITION ALONG 30N34W 15N48W BY LATE TONIGHT.

$$
WILLIS


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