[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 12N
FROM 25W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED THUS
COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN THE AREA OF DRY AIR LIMITING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE PREVIOUSLY NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW MASKED BY HIGH CLOUDS. WAVE WAVE IS
BENEATH RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 7N34W 11N50W 10N62W ACROSS
THE SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-14N
BETWEEN 11W-19W AN FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 25W-35W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NW TO THE
CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W. AN UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
GIVING THE SW GULF S OF 26W W OF 90W CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH MOSTLY IN THE
W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE AXIS
PUSHING SSE OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N
FROM 82W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI TO 17N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N FROM 60W-65W DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM SE GEORGIA TO
HAITI COVERING THE AREA W OF 70W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W S TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR
22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W-76W. AN UPPER HIGH IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
23N64W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N59W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-33N
BETWEEN 65W-72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC NEAR
32N24W SW ALONG 22N38W TO 18N53W. THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN
40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NNE TO BEYOND 32N15W COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC AND PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 20N33W
TO 32N15W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 29N30W TO 20N32W.

$$
WALLACE




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