[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262314
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 3N25W 4N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-12N. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA WITHIN 200-250 NM OF THE AXIS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E US DIPS INTO THE NE GULF N OF 28N
FROM 80W-91W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO
THE E GULF NEAR 26N85W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL OVER
THE SE GULF INCLUDING W CUBA AND FAR S FLORIDA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF A
LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ ALONG 25N90W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST
S OF TAMPA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER N ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ARE MOVING E INTO THE FAR
W ATLC AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN NOW
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W WITH A LONG UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W OVER S MEXICO AND E ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO 14N58W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING MOST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING
GENERATED INLAND OVER SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S
OF 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
A SURFACE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED S OF PANAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INLAND
OVER HAITI AND JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FAR W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF
73W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
GULF INTO THE W ATLC BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 74W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE W ATLC W OF 80W AND WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 41W-73W WITH A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N51W TO
21N61W. A 1023 MB HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM JUST E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N58W NE ALONG 20N48W TO BEYOND
32N34W NARROWING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER NW AFRICA W ALONG 33N25W THEN SW INTO THE TROPICS
TO NEAR 11N48W. E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 18N E OF 38W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 7N/8N. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE
AZORES SW ALONG 32N32W TO 24N38W.

$$
WALLACE


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