[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 56W SOUTH
OF 7N MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. ONLY  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE IN SURINAME AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF
PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. THE ITCZ IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER PANAMA...JUST
NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 1N50W. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 16W. THIS
CLUSTER COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE NW
PORTION OF THE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDING NW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL AND SE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS S
MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL...SE GULF...SOUTH FLORIDA AND
WESTERN CUBA...AND BEYOND. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 60-80 KT IS
PRODUCING THIS BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS OF 150O UTC...A
SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
16N60W. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EPAC
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN AND THE MAJORITY OF CUBA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 75W...
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PART OF VENEZUELA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO DE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS CROSSING
JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG
52/53W COVERING FROM 40W-60W NORTH OF 24N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N46W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 21N58W. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 32N64W. THE AZORES HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 40N20W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE E ATLC TO
24N38W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE E
ATLC...WHERE ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN. STRONG UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER MOROCCO COVERS
THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net