[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232252
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED. ANY
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 71W/72W AND NOT
GENERATING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION IN THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 5N22W 4N33W 6N47W 5N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W GULF NEAR 25N92W COVERING THE AREA
FROM 20N-30N W OF 90W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE N GULF COAST NEAR 28N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ALONG 23N94W TO INLAND OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE YUCATAN OVER THE E GULF...GENERATING AND BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 91W TO THE N GULF
COAST STATES AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY NE OF THE YUCATAN AND ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE W GULF IS CLEAR AND DRY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH OVER E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERING THE W ATLC AS WELL AND AN E/W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
55W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO AREAS. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN MOVING NE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. THE SECOND AREA IS IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 74W
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA. THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING
CONVECTION...BUT IT REMAINS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS NUDGING S INTO THE W ATLC N OF 32N W OF
55W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION JUST E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING ALONG 30N70W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N80W. GENEROUS AMOUNT OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
S OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 60W. LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E
HISPANIOLA COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 32N46W ALONG 24N45W TO 17N47W. THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 10N31W THROUGH AN
UPPER HIGH NEAR 20N28W TO BEYOND 32N30W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N29W SW TO
22N58W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ATLC E OF 60W.

$$
WALLACE


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