[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 9N MOVING SLOWLY WWD.
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 33W-38W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER E COLOMBIA/W VENEZUELA ALONG
70W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 5N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS WEST OF 24W. FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 44W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO FOUND ALONG THE COASTLINE OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N92W TO 19N95W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N-86.5W TO 23.5N-86.5W. THIS
TROUGH IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN EAST OF THE
TROUGH...COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING
PART OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N91W. THE NW EXTENT OF AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
STRONG DRY UPPER AIR COVERS MOST OF MEXICO...PARTICULARLY THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCING MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ALSO AFFECTING SE NICARAGUA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THANKS TO A MID/UPPER HIGH THAT IS IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 82W...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM JAMAICA TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. SE TO SW FLOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 85W AND WESTERN CUBA. THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS LOCATED INLAND ALONG 70W IS GENERATING
SOME CONVECTION OVER SE COLOMBIA. VISIBLE PICTURES ARE STILL
SHOWING A THIN ASH PLUME EXTENDING AROUND 60 NM TO THE WNW OF
SOUFRIERE HILLS LOCATED IN THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY/COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ALONG 31N65W 31N80W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LARGE 1028 MB
HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH TO CENTERS...ONE
IS NEAR 30N40W...THE OTHER ONE IS NEAR 37N21W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W DUE
TO THE AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 25N33W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ALONG 34W.
IN BETWEEN...THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 46/47W.  PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AREA OBSERVED EAST OF 47W.

$$
GR





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