[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL
DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
8N51W-10N56W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N24W 2N42W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE E US EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE SW ALONG 29N85W 25N96W S TO 23N97W THEN NW ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 22N TO THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W AND AND FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED
OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NE PORTION OF FLORIDA. DUE TO THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE LARGE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE E US...THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF IS MOSTLY ZONAL.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO APPROACHING THE W
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  AN
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA THROUGH COLOMBIA TO OVER E PANAMA. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF HONDURAS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR DOMINATES THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER FOR THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE FROM 25N-31N W OF 77W INCLUDING
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N66W TO W OF BERMUDA BEYOND 32N70W WITH A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 20N67W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED S
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 37W-60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED INTO THE REGION EXTEND FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
33N34W WSW TO 29N47W THEN NE TO A DISSIPATING 1014 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N56W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N38W SW TO 23N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND LOW N 0F 23N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17N17W SW TO 10N40W. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS UNDER UPPER ZONAL FLOW. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 21N30W.

$$
WALLACE


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