[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE N OF ITCZ APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 51W-55W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG  9N13W  5N20W  3N30W  3N40W  4N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6W BETWEEN 10E-5W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 40W-42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO
ALONG 30N83W 26N94W 24N98W 25N100W.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS
OVER THE THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N94W
19N96W.  A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 92W-97W DUE TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
SQUALL LINE.  THE NW GULF N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W HAS 20-25 KT
NLY WINDS.  IN CONTRAST THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 90W HAS
5-10 KT SLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE THE GULF.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF
THE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF URABA FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 76W-78W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77N.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD.  EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W TO HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION DURING HE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MORE
CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W.  WEAK COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N58W 28N60W 25N68W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N29W.  THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N19W 27N25W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-80W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 14N27W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 10W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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