[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W  4N20W  5N40W  6N47W  4N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-12W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-22W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LIGHT SLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A COLD
FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND SE
TEXAS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 88W-98W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE GULF HAS
PREDOMINATELY WNW FLOW.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NRN GULF STATES FROM N FLORIDA TO TEXAS.  ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE
YUCATAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
22N-28N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE
MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TAIL END OF DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REACHES N CUBA NEAR 23N81W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR
10N71N.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N.  ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 70W PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUD.  EXPECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTION
DURING HE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING E.  MORE
CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 29N67W 23N81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 28N-33N
BETWEEN 61W-64W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF FRONT
E OF 70W.  1022 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
23N46W.  TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
32N23W 27N31W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 14N25W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA

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