[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES
RIDGE.  LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION APPEARS ON SAT PIX TOO
FAR SW REMOVED FROM WAVE CONVECTION.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W.  GFS 00Z RUN HAS GOOD
INITIAL POSITION AND BRINGS WAVE EFFECTS TO WINDWARD ISLANDS BY
TUE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N10W  2N30W  6N45W  5N52W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 22N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQUATOR TO ITCZ AXIS E OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES DRIFTING S HAS
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SW ACROSS CENTRAL GULF.
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW GENERATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
AREA N OF 23N AND EXTENDING INTO SW N ATLC.  AT THE SFC...1016
MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER E GULF KEEP CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER ERN HALF AND INCREASING RETURN FLOW W OF 90W.  HIGH
PRES DRIFT E OF AREA MON AS HEALTHY COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF.
GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ABUNDANT WATER
SUPPLY BEING FED BY UPPER UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL GIVE THIS FRONT
GOOD PUSH ACROSS GULF...POSSIBLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE
AHEAD OF IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY OVER COSTA RICA HAS EXTENDED
HORIZONTALLY NOW COVERING FROM ERN VENEZUELA THROUGH W OF 90W.
SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO E PAC ITCZ HELPING ITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 100W.  N
EDGE OF RIDGE NEVERTHELESS HAS CONFLUENT FLOW WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGH MENTIONED IN GULF OF MEXICO PARAGRAPH AND DRIES AIR MASS
SIGNIFICANTLY S OF 16N.  RIDGE HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM E PAC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ADVECTING NE BY RIDGE ACROSS
YUCATAN-HONDURAS INTO NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CUBA AND INTO SW N
ATLC ALONG WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  AT THE SFC...TAIL END
OF SW N ATLC COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS W-CENTRAL CUBA IS
DISSIPATING IN CARIBBEAN.  WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVING INTO ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA MON WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT AND INCREASE TRADES
ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGES OF BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK COLD FRONT 31N68W 23N79W HAS MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCH WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N27W 26N40W THEN BECOMES
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N48W.  SFC TROUGH 150 NM E OF
FRONT IDENTIFIED BY BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LITTLE OR
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.  HIGH PRES 1020 MB AT 24N50W
AND IN E ATLC...A 1021 MB HIGH PRES AT 24N24W HAS RIDGING
STRETCHING SWWARD TO 16N36W.  IN TROPICAL ATLC...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 13N30W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
6N-15N E OF 34W.  WEAK 50 KT JETSTREAM ORIGINATES ON W PERIPHERY
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONIC.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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