[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS MORNING. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED
ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG AND
WITHIN 50-70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...BUT MAINLY E OF 36W
AND BETWEEN 48W-52W .

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO
THE E US DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. AS OF 0600 UTC...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N87W TO INLAND IN NE MEXICO
NEAR 24N98W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS AFFECTING
THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO NORTH OF
22N. AN AREA OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF.
BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE
GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTRED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE
EASTERN SECTOR OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING
ALSO THE MONA PASSAGE.  REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR
SO. THIS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED CLOSE TO LAKE
MARACAIBO AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF
11N FROM 55W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE AREA SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO 26N80W. A WEAK 1017
MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N50W
ALONG 23N53W 21W61W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
N OF 15N E OF 55W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A
ANOTHER WEAK 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N40W. AN UPPER E/W
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 10N/12N.

$$
GR





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net