[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 3N52W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E
OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7.5N E OF 13W TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-34W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BRAZIL
FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO
THE E US DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF ALONG
31N92W 28N95W TO INLAND IN NE MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO
NORTH OF 21N. THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE W
CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TO BELOW 20 KT.  A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N
OF 11N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
AROUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF
11N FROM 55W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE AREA SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W SW TO 26N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO
27N79W.  A SQUALL LINE IS JUST EAST OF SE COAST OF GEORGIA
ENTERING FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH
IS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES NEAR 31N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH...
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO A
1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N49W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 21N58W.
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W
KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 27N31W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N WITH THE AXIS ALONG 10N/12N.

$$
GR




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