[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS PERSISTING WITHIN 90
NM OF THE AXIS W OF 35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
TSTMS HAVE FIRED BETWEEN 6E-10W FROM 1N-5N.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIE ACROSS
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE...OTHERWISE
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. FAIR WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A 1017
MB HIGH IS LOCATED 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE S EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER WHERE LIGHT WLY
ARE FOUND. STRONGER WINDS...NEAR 15 KT ARE OBSERVED IN THE
EXTREME NW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FEW OBSERVATIONS
IN CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE REPORTED SMOKE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
AND BASED UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY THE S RETURN FLOW HAS CARRIED
SOME OF THE SMOKE INTO THE GULF CURRENTLY W OF 88W S OF 26N. THE
WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLC AND
WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE S
PORTION OF THE U.S. BEGINS TO MOVE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF LATE
SUN/EARLY MON. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONT WILL DIG FAR TO THE S PREDICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL TO BE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED E OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N59W GENERATING A WIDE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE IS DRIVEN NWD FROM CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA ON THE
W PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND HAS SPREAD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES.
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT LIES ABOVE THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AT THE SFC...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL ATLC SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THRU THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A PATCH OF THICK CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-EXISTING SFC TROUGH
IS S OF HAITI TO NEAR 15N78W. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS INDICATES A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NNE OF THE AREA BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THE TAIL END OF THE
SFC TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY
SUN. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN-MOST ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...NO BIG
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FOUND NEAR 39N63W
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. S OF THE UPPER LOW GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES EXIST W OF 50W. THERE IS SOME GENTLE RIDGING ALONG
77W AND SLIGHT TROUGHING ALONG 58W N OF 26N. AN AREA OF ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDS FROM 21N TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 54W-73W. A WELL-DEFINED SFC
TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS WEEK...LIES
ALONG 35N49W 24N59W 15N63W. SFC FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST AND
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 250 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N WITH
MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE S OF THERE. FARTHER EAST...A SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE DOMINATES THE PRES PATTERN IN THE E ATLC WITH A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N27W. SFC RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE HIGH
SWWARD ALONG 27N40W 20N50W AND SEWARD FROM THE HIGH ALONG 28N18W
18N13W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. EXCESS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS
SPILLING OVER THE SFC RIDGE W OF 42W N OF 24N. A TROPICAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS ALONG 7N45W 14N25W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 20N16W AND THEN INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXIST WITHIN 175 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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