[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 1N24W TO EQ50W
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL.  THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 13W AND 24W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ IN THE GULF OF GUINEA BOUNDED BY 2-5N AND 10W-10E.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE ITCZ IN A LARGER REGION FROM THE EQUATOR UP TO 4N.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GULF ... PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF.  WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT OCCUR
IN THE WESTERN GULF.  THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AT THE SAME TIME THAT A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS INCREASES THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN GULF.  SOME SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LAST NIGHT
... THOUGH THESE HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING PRIMARILY UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS WINDS ARE WESTERLY FROM 40 TO
70 KT ACROSS THE GULF.  A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND INCREASE THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ... THOUGH IT APPEARS NOT VERY LIKELY
THAT THIS WILL CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF AT MOST 15 KT
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.  A TROUGH FROM A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOUND IN THE
ATLANTIC JUST TOUCHES THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ... THOUGH THIS
TROUGH WAS NO LONGER PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE CARIBBEAN. SOME SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF PANAMA ... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WAS
NEARLY RAIN FREE.  WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF UP TO 50
KT WAS FOUND IN THE UPPER LEVELS DECREASING SOUTHWARD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS FOUND OVER SOUTH AMERICAN AROUND 9N.  HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO
CONTINENTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND NEAR 38N63W
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  A SURFACE TROUGH FROM A FORMER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N51W DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.  A
SECONDARY LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY NEAR THE NORTH
END OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  MODERATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 26N. ELSEWHERE THE ATLANTIC HAS
NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING.  A MODERATE 1026 MB
HIGH AT 33N26W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY
... HELPING TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO EASTNORTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO
20 KT THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE ZONAL WESTERLY AWAY FROM THE DEEP LAYER LOW WITH WINDS
50 TO 90 KT WEAKENING CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
CWL



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