[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE WEST OF 20 W. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED
ALONG 7N10W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 10W-14W. MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
WITHIN 120-150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W AND BETWEEN
39W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 44W-53W AS WELL AS OVER FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS  NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND
ALSO ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA. AT THE SFC...A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N85W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE
PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SE WINDS OF
10-15 KT BLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF 23N. HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE E THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NE GULF COAST LATE SAT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
CUBA. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.
A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NEWD
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS LESSER AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRYER AIR MASS.  AT
THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N65W NEWD ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 26N55W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 50W...WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE ATLC COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 31N50W 26N54W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N54W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A
BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150
NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SEEN FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 56W-75W. A WLY JET OF 70-90 KT IS
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 55W-70W. A MID/UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BETWEEN 25W-50W...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N34W DOMINATES THE ATLC EAST OF 50W. SCATTERED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ONLY OBSERVED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS RUNS ALONG 9N FROM
SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY EAST TO 20W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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