[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. THE ITCZ IS
FAIRLY ACTIVE W OF 30W...WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NWD CARRIED BY SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. A FEW
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-17W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 4W
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF WITH PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. AT THE
SFC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA
NEAR 28N86W SUPPLYING PLENTY OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE W
GULF...W OF 94W...WHERE S RETURN FLOW BREEZES ARE NEAR 15 KT.
SFC RIDGING WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THRU SAT. THEREAFTER...SFC
HIGH PRES WILL PULL TO THE E OF THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE N GULF ON SUN BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED E OF
TRINIDAD NEAR 10N55W. MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL RIDGE WITH SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
BROKEN PATCHES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH FROM S AMERICA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THEN
TOWARDS THE E ATLC WITHIN 200 NM TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE 11N77W
19N68W 17N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME SMALL POCKETS OF
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N77W TO THE SW COAST OF HAITI
GENERATING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE TAIL END OF A CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH CUTS THRU THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N62W 16N65W. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWARD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. BASED ON
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODELS DO ANTICIPATE THE SFC
FEATURE TO LIFT N OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NEMOST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 32N65W. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO THE S OF THE
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 53W-78W. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 1000 MB LOW S OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N67W 29N73 31N77W.
SMALL PATCHES OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
TROUGH. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N49W 27N55W THEN AS A
SFC TROUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STRETCH A FEW HUNDRED NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 175 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO FALL APART S OF 32N THIS WEEKEND AS ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FLATTENS AND PULLS NEWARD. FARTHER EAST...A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N34W DOMINATES THE E ATLC. SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE SFC RIDGE W OF 37W N OF 24N. FAIR
WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REST OF E ATLC N OF 10N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...GENTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM
A BROAD TROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 10N55W TO 32N35W. GRADUAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING RUNS FROM FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO TO 20N28W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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