[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W EQ50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
20W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN
34W-36W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 10121 MB HIGH OVER N GEORGIA IS PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WARM 10-15 KT SELY FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS.. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING E.  EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PRODUCE MORE FAIR WEATHER.  ELSEWHERE...SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF TAMPICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
60W-74W.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE
E AND S OF PUERTO RICO.  ELSEWHERE... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 73W-78W. TRADEWINDS
ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 10N.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE N COAST OF
S AMERICA S OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-78W.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N65W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 30N58W 24N58W
18N65W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-55W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR
36N45W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N35W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG .  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
AREA.  A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
10W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W.  IN THE TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DRIFT
E AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA


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