[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 3N20W 1N30W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS
AGO HAVE LOST THEIR DEFINITION AND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
HAS WEAKENED AND DISAPPEARED. THE PROMINENT RIDGE FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE GULF HAS WEAKENED AND ANYTHING LEFT FROM IT EITHER
IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND/OR ALREADY HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 24N97W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH REACHES 17N66W JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N58W 22N60W 18N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N68W 18N66W
20N65W...AND 20N69W 19N71W 17N72W 16N73W. THE GFS 500 MB MODEL
INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH MAY BE IN THE AREA OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. EXPECT AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE STARTS OUT AT THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 4N8W
AND EXTENDS TO 6N34W...CONTINUING TO 8N56W...EVENTUALLY REACHING
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF 13N EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
IS MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE CENTRAL
AMERICA-TO-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE STARTS OUT AT THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 4N8W AND EXTENDS TO 6N34W...CONTINUING TO
8N56W...EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE MARACAIBO. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW CENTER OF 24 HOURS AGO HAVE NOT
GONE AWAY YET. THE LOW APPEARS NEAR 32N62W...MUCH MORE STRETCHED
OUT AND NOT AS BEAUTIFUL-LOOKING AS YESTERDAY'S VERSION. THE
1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N64W. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N58W 22N60W 18N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W. BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N62W
LOW CENTER AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW TO
32N14W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N22W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE IS NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR
30N21W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO 22N38W.

$$
MT


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