[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N20W 4N30W 2N40W 3N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 27W-32W...AND FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WARM
10-15 KT SELY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN
93W-96W...AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS.. SLOW MOVING RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
81W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE.  EXPECT THE
UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.   ALSO EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN.
SELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO
AND THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TAMPICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS N OF PUERTO RICO.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 63W-73W.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW
VENEZUELA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 71W-73W. TRADEWINDS ARE RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER
THE ERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1006 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 30N60W 25N60W 19N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM
E OF FRONT N OF 23N.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR
38N42W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO 20N45W.  A 1009 MB
LOW HAS SPUN DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR 28N25W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CIRCULATION
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.
A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  ANOTHER BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 28N26W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  IN THE TROPICS...WLY
ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS
FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA



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