[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N30W EQ40W EQ50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 14W-18W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 21W-25W...FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN 27W-31W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
S OF MISSISSIPPI ALONG 30N89W 28N91W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO.  10-15 KT SELY FLOW DOMINATES
MOST ALL OF THE GULF.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
MEXICO AND THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
94W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. SLOW MOVING RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
NE.  EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT TO ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   ALSO EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURFACE PATTERN.  THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WHILE SELY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND THE
WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TAMPICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS N OF PUERTO RICO.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 63W-73W.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W. TRADEWINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 30N60W 25N60W 19N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM
E OF FRONT N OF 22N.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR
39N41W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO 17N45W.  A 1015 MB
LOW HAS SPUN DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR 28N27W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CIRCULATION
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.
A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  ANOTHER BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 28N26W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  IN THE TROPICS...WLY
ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS
FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA


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