[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

9N8W 4N15W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 29W...2S40W TO THE BRAZIL
COAST AT 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN ALONG THE
BRAZIL COAST FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST
SINCE 03/0600 UTC. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NOW SOUTH
OF 1N TO THE BRAZIL COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 39W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ALSO FROM 3S TO 3N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WAS MORE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED ITS POSITION
EASTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW MORE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W
IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 90W.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 27N83W TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W. THE WESTERN END
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE HAS POKED ITS WAY INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. NO OTHER DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OF
THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOME PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PASSES
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF THE BROADER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ISOBARIC PATTERN
ORIGINATES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND REACHES THE EAST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
34N10W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N23W...TO A
SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS NEAR 26N36W...TO
26N52W TO 24N68W.....TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N47W TO 31N49W. A BAND OF CLOUDS...MARKING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH 33N70W TO 32N75W TO 33N78W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. A LOT OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND EASTERN CANADA. MIDDLE LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN
20W AND 80W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A 25N74W 26N72W 27N71W 28N71W
29N69W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTWARD-
MOVING TROUGH IS REACHING SPAIN AND MOROCCO AT THIS TIME. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WITH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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