[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

8N8W 6N13W 2N18W 1N25W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 32W...TO THE BRAZIL
COAST AT 3S40W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W...
AND FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W AND 28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
2N TO 5S BETWEEN 29W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WAS MORE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED ITS POSITION
EASTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW MORE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W IN
WESTERN CUBA TO 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A SURFACE 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N92W. THE
WESTERN END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE HAS POKED ITS
WAY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF WATERS REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA.
NO OTHER DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OF THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. THIS AREA MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATES FROM
A 1007 MB INLAND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W...
AND STRETCHES TO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 34N11W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N23W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WHICH IS NEAR 27N34W...TO 24N45W TO 21N60W...TO 25N70W...TO THE
BAHAMAS TO 26N83W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN
END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES 31N54W AND GOES
BEYOND 32N50W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 29N47W BEYOND 32N40W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS ZONAL BETWEEN 20W AND 80W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD SPAIN AND
MOROCCO AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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