[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 26W-28W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 61W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 54W-62W.
THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT
...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROBABLY
RELATED TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 9N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 31W-35W...
AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 38W-42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N84W 29N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 86W-92W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.  A 50-60 KT UPPER WIND
MAXIMUM IS OVER THE N GULF ALONG 30N.  EXPECT MORE AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TOMORROW.  ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  20-30 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-85W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-73W.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
HONDURAS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-70W.  EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W ...WHILE AIRMASS CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N63W 25N65W
21N69W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
61W-65W.  A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
38N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 31N66W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-77W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N44W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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