[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 5N40W 5N47W 4N51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 28W AND 34W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 11N53W 17N40W
22N30W 27N20W BEYOND 26N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. STRATIFORM CLOUDS REMAIN
SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W
AND 95W. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS INCREASING WEST OF THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE HIGHER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
SKIRTING THE OPEN GULF WATERS...PREFERRING TO HUG THE COASTAL
PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS/SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA. THIS IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND PROBABLY
CLEAR THE GULF BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF 27N. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA PASSING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHERN HAITI...
TO 13N80W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT. DEWPOINTS ARE
INTO THE 50S FAHRENHEIT HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N62W 19N65W 17N68W.
A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N72W
11N80W...AND SOUTH OF 11N WEST OF 80W. OTHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND BETWEEN
THIS FIRST LINE AND 15N WEST OF 80W...WITH THE FRONT. WINDS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE TOMORROW IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS MOISTURE FROM THE
TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. STRONG
DRYING IS OBSERVED ALOFT ALMOST EVERYWHERE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE STRONGEST DRYING OVER AND SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. THIS IS DUE TO A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH IS DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS FOUND ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 25N63W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W FROM 19N TO 20N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N61W 26N59W BEYOND
32N59W. A SQUALL LINE WAS WITHIN 60 NM TO 100 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT.
A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE AZORES CONTINUES
TO BRING STRONG TRADE WINDS EAST OF 60W IN THE REGION. QUIKSCAT
DATA EARLIER WAS INDICATING WINDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT IN A REGION
FROM 15N TO 25N EAST OF 45W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHIFT WESTWARD
AS A CUTOFF EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N20W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUGHT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM 23N32W TO
21N42W...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS FORMING...TO 15N51W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE
SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF 22N EAST OF 45W.

$$
MT

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