[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N33W 4N43W 3N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 5N BETWEEN 16W-29W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 2N32W 6N37W 5N44W ALONG A WEAK
TROUGH IN THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH IS SITTING OVER S ALABAMA RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BRINGING CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITH SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N.  HOWEVER RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS
INCREASING W OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SE TEXAS.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO ADDING
TO THE CLOUD COVER N OF 27.5N W OF 88W AROUND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT IN THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW IN THE EXTREME NW GULF INTO SE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE
AND PROBABLY CLEAR THE GULF BY THU.  UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE TSTMS ESPECIALLY N OF 27N.
GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA WITH MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...I.E.
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CAYMANS.  A BAND OF
SHOWERS IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 80W WITH OTHER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS/CLOUD  OBSERVED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. WINDS TO 25 ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING.  TSTMS LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR NE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE REGION.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
66W-70W NEAR THOSE ISLANDS.  FARTHER S... A 90 NM WIDE BAND OF
SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 15N73W 13N78W 9.5N82.5W AND
TYPICAL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AS MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DRYING IS OBSERVED ALOFT ALMOST EVERYWHERE ON WATER VAPOR
WITH THE STRONGEST DRYING OVER JAMAICA.  THIS IS DUE TO A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRIVING THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD.  ELSEWHERE... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS THE RULE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO FEATURES DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IN THE W ATLC AND A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLLING THE E ATLC.
COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N63W 25N64W TO NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM N OF
20N.  GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD & BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 22N W TO
THE BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
TURKS/CAICOS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
FARTHER E... A 1037 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES CONTINUES TO BRING
STRONG TRADES E OF 60W IN THE REGION WITH QUIKSCAT INDICATING
25-30 KT IN A REGION FROM 15N-24N E OF 45W.  MODELS SUGGEST THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHIFT WESTWARD
AS A CUTOFF EXTRATROPICAL LOW FORMS IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N22W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF 24N BETWEEN
30W-55W.  UPPER TROUGHING IS CAUGHT S OF OF THE RIDGE FROM
24N31W 13N55W WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR 20N41W.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH ARE SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 22N E
OF 45W.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS ACTIVE S OF TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF
NRN S AMERICA S OF 9.5N W OF 57W.

$$
BLAKE

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