[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 062031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6.  ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS
BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL
REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 23.4N  50.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  52.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 25.4N  54.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 27.8N  56.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 30.2N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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