[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 49.9W AT 06/1500
UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
WELL W OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND
IMPINGING DRY UPPER AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 44W-49W. GRADUAL WEAKENING REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 3N25W 3N35W TO S OF THE
EQUATOR AT 1S45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-7N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W
23N83W MOVING SE.  STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
COVERING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED
IN THE SW GULF.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE TEXAS
COAST.  A 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N102W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 23N.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 23N.  EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH TO BE
OVER NW GULF AT THE 24 HOUR POINT WITH COLD NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.  NORTHERLY
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 75W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W WITH AXIS ALONG 65W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED E OF 80W MOVING NE TO E.  EXPECT THE STRONG
COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BE FROM E CUBA TO
COSTA RICA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...NW WINDS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  T.D. ZETA IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SEE ABOVE.   SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W.  A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N48W WITH T.D. ZETA EMBEDDED IN
IT.  A TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 17N AND E OF 30W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-20N E
OF 55W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net