[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W EQ20W 2S35W  TO INLAND
OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 5S AND
BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO MEXICO AND
THE GULF W OF 90W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF N OF 20N ACROSS FLORIDA/WESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE W
ATLC. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ACROSS
EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
DOTTING THE AREA S OF 25N. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE GULF WITH A 103O MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
GA/AL BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS
WESTWARD COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHERE MAINLY S
UPPER WINDS ARE FOUND. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THIS AREA NW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SEA AND WILL REMAIN
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE NW SECTOR WHERE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
BELIZE. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E
CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC/BAHAMAS AND
ALSO COVERS FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS
E BAHAMAS/CUBA. IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT N OF 28N.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N56W TO
25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN AROUND 130 NM. A BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A SECOND DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE UPPER
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W SW TO TROPICS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
31N20W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N25W TO 22N34W DISSIPATING TO NEAR
21N46W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 29N37.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 25N.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLC...THUS ONLY SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVELS CLOUDS ARE SEEN
OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

$$
GR


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