[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N17W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF 1N FROM 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS ALONG
96W COVERING THE W GULF W OF 93W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 20N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NO LONGER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS DOTTING S GULF S OF 25N. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF WITH A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SE UPPER
FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL REMAIN FOR MOST THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW
WHERE THE COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 22N78W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SW AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
OVER THE W ATLC W OF 62W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A STRONG STORM FORCE SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE
REGION ENTERING THE AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W SW ALONG
26N67W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N60W TO 31N56W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE3 WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N47W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N22W SW TO TROPICS NEAR 18N38W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N29W TO
22N39W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 21N46W. THIS FRONT UNDERCUTS A 1023
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N40W WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH TO THE E OF
THE FRONT NEAR 25N21W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...THUS
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

$$
WALLACE



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