[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N0 4N10W 2N20W 2N33W 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4S-6N BETWEEN 5E-3W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N89W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE N MEXICO COAST
ALONG 27N96W 25N98W.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN MOSTLY N OF
FRONT.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED S OF THE LOW FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  WARM SLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF S OF FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA
TO THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER
THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A GALE IS ALONG THE N COLOMBIA COAST.  20-25 KT TRADEWINDS
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-73W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FURTHER N FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
60W-75W.  SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 77W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY S OF 13N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC...
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N40W
25N50W 21N60W 21N70W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 26N.  A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF FRONT IS ALSO PRODUCING STORM
CONDITIONS N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W-55W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N26W.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST TO 40W
BETWEEN 3N-20N. THE DUST IS NOT VERY CONCENTRATED...SO ONLY
SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.
A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-40W.  WLY FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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