[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N0 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W 2S40W.
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN IVORY
COAST AND SIERRA LEONE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 44W-52W OVER THE AMAZON DELTA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SWD ACROSS THE AREA HAS
BECOME DETACHED WITH THE MAIN PORTION CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE
ATLC BASIN. A SEGMENT OF THE FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE NW GULF
COAST ANCHORED BY WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS. THE LOW HAS FORCED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY SWD OVER NE MEXICO
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THE VICINITY OF MONTERREY...WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NE OF THE LOW INTO SRN LOUISIANA.
OVERCAST AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LIE PRIMARILY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN S TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INLAND OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS HIGHLY ZONAL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CONTINENT BUT
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA BY SUN EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH THE
AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EWD PAST THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT TO STILL PRODUCE QUICK-PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRUSH THE NRN PARTS OF THE AREA SUN/MON.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG COLD FRONT...CONNECTED TO A HURRICANE FORCE LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND...EXTENDS ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA FROM
32N39W 23N60W 23N70W THEN TO S FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS ALONG
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD LIFT N OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. COOL AND DRY STABLE AIR HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING WELL N OF THE AREA.
FARTHER E...MAINLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS IN CONTROL WITH A SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 24N20W 14N40W AND A 300 MB JET AXIS
FROM 13N35W NEWD INTO NRN MAURITANIA AND SRN ALGERIA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST TO 40W BETWEEN 3N-20N. THE DUST IS NOT VERY
CONCENTRATED...SO ONLY SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE REGION. 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N26W BUT
IS BEING INFLUENCED FROM THE N BY A COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS FROM 32N14W TO 30N22W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 30N.

$$
BERG


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