[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND
150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-17W AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-25W. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM EQ-2N AND BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF O900 UTC...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S/CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 26N90W 24N98W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT.  15-20 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT SELY
FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 26N100W 30N102W. A
TROUGH IS ALONG 90-92W SOUTH OF 23N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THAT ALSO
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. SWLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS N OF 27N
WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF AS A WARM
FRONT TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCES INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL
RENTER THE GULF LATE SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL
INVADE THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OVER COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH ARE KEEPING THE MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT MID LEVELS REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE ENTIRE BASIN. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE/UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS STILL DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-55W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ARE NEAR 31N-66.5W THEN CONTINUES SW TO
S/CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. A
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 31N35W
26.5N44W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC.

$$
GR





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