[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 10W-25W AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF O300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NE MEXICO ALONG 30N74W 27N90W 24N98W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT.  15-20 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  5-10 KT SLY
FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 26N100W 30N102W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD RIDGE THAT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO. SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. A 90-110 KT
JETSTREAM IS N OF 27N WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR EXITS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCES INDICATE THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL RENTER THE GULF LATE SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE N COLOMBIA COAST. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  SIMILAR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG
MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT MID LEVELS
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. NO
MAJOR CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
55W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS STILL DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-55W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N/CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 28N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N60W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 31N37W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 25.5N50W. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. A
1025 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC.

$$
GR




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