[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 1S20W 1S30W 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
AROUND 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 7W-20W AND NORTH OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 23W-27W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DOT THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND STILL DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT TO
SOUTH TEXAS JUST NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE  MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...SFC WINDS ARE SLY NEAR
10 KTS...NORTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF A 1021 MB HIGH
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALSO
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR COVERS THE
ENTIRE SEA. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVELS CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN
WESTWARD BY 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT
ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. HIGH
PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG E TRADES
ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TRADES WILL
ALSO BRING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC
WEST OF 65 W. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF 1023
HIGHS ARE IN THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N73W AND 27N55W
RESPECTIVELY. IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS THERE
IS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 25N67W. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA 31N38W AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N52W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT. A 1027 MB
SFC HIGH LOCATED EAST OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ FAIRLY FAR S TO PARTIALLY BELOW
THE EQUATOR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED 54-55W
ENTERING SURINAME. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTEND SE OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO 16N50W TO
20N40W. COLD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE MADEIRA AND
CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR



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