[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N13W 1S20W 1N30W 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN
1W-8W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 32N83W 28N90W 27N96W AND THEN
SOUTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TO MEXICO AND AROUND THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. BROKEN CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
AND TO THE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRE IN MEXICO. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC WINDS ARE
SLY NEAR 10 KTS...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EASTERLY
NEAR 10 KT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS S OF THE BOUNDARY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1021 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 28N. GFS FORECASTS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
BECOME A WARM FRONT AND DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TOMORROW. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS. STRONGER
WINDS...GALE FORCE...ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA AND PANAMA.
EAST OF THE ISLANDS...A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 56W/57W
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OR SO OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND S. AMERICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT W OF 57W. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG 25N68W TO 27N66W. ONLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. MORE ORGANIZED
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 34N63W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N69W AND THEN AS A DYING
COLD FRONT TO 29N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
ALONG 32N39W 26N51W 23N60W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY N OF 30N... EXTEND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. A 1030 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N22W DOMINATES THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ FAIRLY FAR S TO
PARTIALLY BELOW THE EQUATOR. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 200 NM OF A
LINE FROM S AMERICA NEAR 8N58W TO 19N28W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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