[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200016
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 12W-15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/FAR W ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
26N95W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N86W.  A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO S FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO S
MEXICO ALONG 22N95W 19N97W 21N100W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 90W.  EXPECT THE FRONT OVER
THE N GULF TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 30N WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT A SURGE OF SURFACE
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE TRADEWINDS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A GALE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA
ALONG 32N58W 28N70W 27N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N
OF THE FRONTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.  A WEAK
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N60W 22N70W.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 60W-75W.  A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 4N40W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 30N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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